A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. They composes two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will win here and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
